Friday, February 26, 2010

A quick and dirty business plan

I have just sat down and done a very quick cost plan for the facility:
Johor FIA approved circuit

I have used pounds sterling and used a factor of five where necessary to convert from ringitts.

I am using this blog in place of a napkin for sketching purposes... (Like most important ideas, the McLaren F1 was conceived on the back of a napkin. )

Petronas spent 30million over five years to productionise and race their WSB (Foggy Petronas). So it is possible to build a bike from scratch and enter it in WSB for this amount. I will use this as my engineering budget figure.

Torque (read previous post) quotes 2million ringgit to upgrade Johor circuit = 400,000 pounds. For simplicity I will assume they are being conservative. I will use a figure of 1 million pounds.

The circuit has been rundown for years expect the worst.

New Buildings workshops classrooms equipment etc. Hethel Engineering Centre cost just over 5 million it is having a 2.4 million extension.

Lets say 8 million for buildings and equipment. Plus 2 million for upgrades as necessary.

Group Lotus let the Hethel Engineering Centre have the land for a nominal sum. We cannot expect the same.

How much is a run down circuit? We'll pull a figure out of the sky 10 million. (This figure is an unknown to me... it may be much higher... or if we were gifted the circuit much lower!))

If we run the equivalent of two 30 million projects over 10 years = 60million  (We can spend this with some of our potential partners Yamaha motogp/Group lotus/Lotus F1/ Mercedes GP/ Redbull Drift...

We'll say Utilities, security and maintainence 1 million per annum = 10million

Our team of academic partners will study our real world projects. They will split them into modular curriculums. Lets say this process adds 10% to the project costs = 6 million.

Lets add 6 million for media/multi media support.

Building accomodation for oversea and non local guests/students 6 million.

This comes to 103 million over ten years. Lets say 100 million. 10 million per year for one campus.

At the end of ten years we would own the circuit and campus.

My plan calls for a second campus in Shanghai.

Lets just use the same 100 million figure. At the end of ten years we would not own the Shanghai facility.

So 2 campuses for 10 years 200 million expenditure = 20 million per year average

Ignoring income from campus based students, at the end of ten years we would hope to have 1 million online students, as per the Limkokwing projection.

One full year study at Malaysian OU prices = circa 5 thousand ringgit = 1 thousand pounds

Our ten year goal is to attract 1 million online students:
     One thousand times one million = 1 billion pounds
Lets say many people take only one two or three modules. 
     Lets half the 1 billion pounds = 500,000,000 pounds

 We'll say each individual virtual student takes an average of 10 hours @40 pound an hour of marking and mentoring... 10 times 40 = 400 pounds per student
So lets say on average, a virtual student costs 400 pounds to mark and mentor.

The 20 million a year will be a standing cost. With one million students the standing cost will be 20 per student.

With 100,000 students the standing cost would be 200 per student add 400 to mark and mentor. and each student costs 600 to educate and mentor = 6,000,000 outgoing
   100,000 times 500 average course fee =
5,000,000 incoming

With 200,000 students the standing cost would be 100 per student add 400 to mark and mentor. and each student costs 500 to educate and mentor = 10,000,000 outgoing
200,000 times 500 average course fee =
10,000,000 incoming

So to break even using this formula we need 200,000 online students paying an average of 500 pounds per year.

Theoretically, 1,000,000 students = 420 per student times 1,000,000 = 420,000, 000 outgoing
                                    1,000,000 students paying 500 on average  = 500,000,000 incoming

One million online students gives us a gross gain of 80,000,000 pounds sterling per year.

My goal would be to break even after 5 years.
10 years would see us achieve one million online students.

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